Friday, December 16, 2016

PEAKOIL.COM DECEPTION: The ETP COVER-UP




Great question, Physicsnerd! And I would love to answer it, but I cannot answer you directly at peakoil.com because I have been permanently BANNED again!  That is how censorship works. 

Here is the post that got me banned:


  
So, just noticing that peakoil.com has a specific agenda to cover-up the Etp model will get you immediately BANNED!  But this is my blog and I am free to say anything I want here even if no one ever reads it.

Let's look more closely at the anatomy of censorship and deception on full display at peakoil.com.  Here is what a guest (i.e reader, non-member) sees when they view active topics:


There are several important things to notice about this.  

1.  Another new Etp Model Q&A thread has been created.  This happens (supposedly automatically) when a thread reaches 500 posts (25 pages).  There is no sensible reason to do this in the first place.  All it does is destroy thread continuity and roll large sections of the thread into an "archive" that the public cannot see.  The Etp Model Q&A thread had 56 pages before it was arbitrarily decided to apply this insidious thread splitting routine for the first time.  No explanation for the policy change was ever given.

2.  The newly created Etp Model Q&A thread is actually part 6, but that part number is not visible in the title of the thread.  A casual reader would likely never know that there was a vast amount of material being hidden from their view.  There is no other thread on the forum where this "mistake" is being made.  The perennial "THE Price of Crude pt 13" thread is clearly and properly titled, but for some reason, the Etp Model Q&A is not.  How could this happen with a supposedly automatic process?

3.  Speaking of supposedly malfunctioning automatic processes, check out what just happened to the "What does the ETP model predict for the future?" thread.  It has somehow "accidentally" locked itself, just one post short of 500 posts, without automatically generating a part 2!  What the hell?  There are now no active threads discussing the Etp model except for the Etp Model Q&A.  By the way, this is not the first time this particular trick has been used.  The same thing happened to the very active "Why a fast crash is inevitable" thread.  It was also locked with 499 posts and no part 2 was automatically created.  Observerbrb had to start a new version himself.

4.  And the cover-up continues.  The screenshot above was taken last night when the thread splitting first occurred.  Today at the top of the forum is yet another official redirect thread from Tanada and mysterious site owner Daniel Colonese entitled "The Real Peak oil"!  This brings us full circle.  I was permanently BANNED for trying to make a sarcastic comment on a very similar thread called "Let's Talk About Peak Oil For A Change"!

It is very difficult to imagine that all of this is just a coincidence.  It should be pretty obvious what is going on.  Tanada herself made it quite clear some time ago: 

  
An open letter to BWHill:

Hi BW,

I have been a very strong and outspoken proponent of the Etp model.  I was largely responsible for taking the Etp fight to the regular discussion threads at peakoil.com.  I did this because I wanted to get the Etp model noticed by a wider audience.  This was strongly resisted by the management of peakoil.com.  It has finally resulted in a permanent BAN that I can not get around, at least so far.  I think they are using cookies to track me (must have been that recent software update).  I really do miss being a part of the ongoing discussion about the implications of the Etp model, but I am not secret agent man.  It seems fairly ridiculous on the face of it that I would have to play some stupid cloak and dagger games just to be able to sneak past the censors at peakoil.com and offer a thoughtful comment on the Etp model.

Of course, even if I could freely comment at peakoil.com, I would still have to resign myself to the sad fact that my best comments would soon be completely obliterated by the thread splitting and "archiving", not to mention the relentless trolling, stalking, and bullying that is just a regular feature of the peakoil.com bullshit forum.

Good discussions are very fragile things.  Tagio left a very interesting comment on the "What does the ETP model predict for the future?" thread.  Unfortunately, it was the very last comment on that now locked thread.  Oh well.  Hopefully this will not discourage him from continuing to make excellent posts.  BW, you yourself made some very good posts to get the Etp Q&A thread back on track after the insane trolling crescendo that coincided with my unfair banning.  Those well thought out, time consuming posts you made just a couple of days ago are essentially invisible to casual readers of the forum today!  You will be forced to repeat yourself again and again endlessly.  What a waste of time.  As long as peakoil.com controls the frame, you are essentially screwed.

 
BW, I hope this blog post helps to convince you that your message is being buried.  You and I discussed the signal to noise problem at peakoil.com quite extensively.  It is time to implement plan B.  You must control your own message.  That means starting up your own blog to host serious, thoughtful discussions that would be far more compelling than anything that is possible on peakoil.com.  These focused discussions could be properly preserved and easily accessable to people who are just learning about the Etp model, giving them a fair chance to actually understand it.  The implications of the Etp model are far too important to be distorted and covered up by the idiots at peakoil.com.

And speaking of idiots:


Why does peakoil.com allow this?  The idiot called marmico is free to post this kind of offensive, disruptive crap.  And I am banned for life.  Yeah, that makes sense.

If you had your own blog, things would be very different.  Please consider doing this as soon as possible.      


Sincerely,

Futilitist, 
aka SumYunGai, 
aka Loren Soman

  
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Holy shit!  Sjn's post just gave me a major new insight about the Etp model!  I just realized that it is a mistake to think that the model is only measuring the energy used by the oil industry to produce oil.  It is, in fact, measuring all the energy that is used to produce oil, but a substantial portion of that energy is being expended by the general economy rather than just the energy producing sector of the economy.

When a bottom up ERoEI analysis tries to account for all of the energy being used to produce oil, it only attempts to measure the energy directly expended by the oil industry.  The Etp model, on the other hand, uses the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes to directly derive the correct answer to the question of the total energy actually used to produce, refine, and distribute oil.  But this energy comes from civilization as a whole, not just the oil industry directly involved in producing oil.  For example, the roads used by the oil industry are also used by everyone else.  Some portion of the energy cost of building those roads should be accounted for as being part of the energy cost of producing oil.  A standard ERoEI analysis at this total system level, if one were attempted, would mix in some economics and attempt to amortize the road building costs over time to estimate the portion of those energy costs that benefit oil production.  The Etp model instead directly captures all of the energy actually expended by ALL parts of the economy to produce oil.  The Etp version of amortization is thus automatic and truly accurate because the Etp model measures the total energy used to produce oil no matter where that energy comes from.

If a version of the Etp model were created that only measured the energy used for Saudi oil production alone, it would automatically be accounting for the bread and circus costs that sjn is talking about in his post above, though the Etp model would not be able to separate those specific energy costs from the total energy costs. 

I believe there has been a simple semantic error in thinking going on, but it is a critical error in terms of biophysics.  Energy flows are invisible and highly complex.  It is valid and useful to separate the economy into two arbitrary parts, i.e. the energy producing sector and the general economy, in order to model the system, but this simplification can result in some semantic confusion, such as assuming that all the energy costs of producing oil are expended in what we call the energy producing sector of the economy.  The Etp model measures the total energy from all sources used to produce oil.  But all sources doesn't just refer to the types of energy sources used (oil, natural gas, solar, etc.) by the oil industry.  All sources also includes the portion of the energy being expended in the general economy that directly contributes to the production of oil. 

This insight should help explain more clearly why the Etp model produces such a starkly different result than standard, bottom up ERoEI analysis does.  And, more fundamentally, this clarification of just what the Etp model is actually measuring in the biophysical universe should be highlighted for a deeper understanding of how civilization actually functions (while it still does).

Of course, I might be completely wrong about this whole damn concept!  I really wish I could discuss it with someone.